Ep 06: Is the 2021-2022 Law School Application Cycle Going to Be More Competitive
In this episode of Break Into Law School, I discuss whether the 2021-2022 law school application cycle is going to be as competitive as the 2020-2021 law school admissions cycle. We take a look back at the factors that made this past law school admissions cycle the most competitive cycle in ABA history and the factors that I believe will contribute to this law school admissions cycle being just as competitive. We will also go over what you can do to prepare for this upcoming law school admissions cycle.
Today we are going to be talking about how the 2021 to 2022 application cycle will be more competitive.
Welcome to another episode of Break into Law School. My name is Sydney Montgomery and I'm a law school admissions consultant specializing in working with first-generation and minority applicants.
So let's dive in.
Today, we are going to be talking about whether or not the 2021 to 2021 application cycle will be more competitive. We really need to look at a couple of things. The first thing that we need to look at is where we are right now. What is the landscape?
We just came out of one of the most competitive application cycles we have ever had in ABA history. So we're going to take a look at the landscape right now, and we're going to take a look at how that will affect the upcoming application cycle. We're also going to take a look at the markers that we have the reasons for why I believe that the 2021 to 2022 application cycle will be just as competitive as the last cycle, if not, perhaps a little bit more competitive and we'll kind of get into those reasons.
Then I want to talk to you about the things that you can do to prepare. So we know that it's going to be at least as competitive. What is it that you can be doing to make sure that you still have a successful application cycle?
So let's just first start off with the facts. What do we know? We know that applications were up somewhere between 32% and 35% for the 2020 to 2021 application cycle. And for those of you who have been following my blogs, you'll know that I actually did a video and a blog on the upcoming cycle last year, and my predictions for why it would be more competitive.
One of the main things was that we know when there's an economic downturn, law school applications go up. That's just what happens. When you look at the 2008 economic crash, law school applications went up. What are the reasons for this? Usually because people are looking for financial stability and also because they're in a period of transition.
So when you have these moments where people are finding themselves suddenly without a job, or they are finding themselves in a situation where they need more money than they have, and the outlook of getting a job is a little bleak, people turn to law school because it's stable, because they know after three years they can come out hopefully with a higher earning potential and a higher earning power. So that is really important to keep in mind. The second reason why I predicted that the 2020 to 2021 cycle would be more competitive is because the rise of social justice movement, there's also, we saw it in 2016, the Trump bump, but when there's an election, which we had in 2020, there's always a spike in law school applications.
And then additionally, what you did see is there was that confirmation of Amy Barrett as the Supreme court justice and that also caused a spike. So we had COVID, we had a pandemic, we had economic downturn, we had social justice and civil rights. We had increase in black lives matter movements. We had a new Supreme court justice confirmation, and we had an election.
They basically all coalesce together to make it be most competitive application cycle in ABA history. But now moving out of that cycle, and honestly, this is a cycle that's going to continue well throughout the summer. And when we're talking about waitlists moving, it's going to be a long time, right?
The waitlists are going to move. There's going to be a lot of movement over the summer. I know that after June 1st, a lot of schools will start to figure out what their seat deposit looks like and start to pull students off the waitlist. However, there's also going to be a large number of students that are re-applying to law school this fall.
So let's take a look at what are the things that I know are going to make this upcoming cycle, at least as competitive as last cycle.
Actually first let's just start with the numbers. Not only were there the highest number of applicants in the last cycle, but there were the highest number of high scoring test takers.
When you look at some of them, the data, the number of, or their percentage of scorers who scored between a 170 and a 174 in the last application cycle, went up 65%. The percentage of people who scored above a 175, went up 127%. So not only were more people taking the test, more people applying to law school, but more people were scoring higher.
And some of that could be attributed to the change in the LSAT format with the new LAST Flex that was rolled out last June as a response to the COVID pandemic situation. Yes, of course there are people that scored worse because the LSAT Flex is not a format that everyone vibes with or does well with, but there's a significantly higher number of students that were scoring incredibly high on the LSAT.
What that's done is it's caused a rise in medians. So when you're going into the law school application cycle, this coming cycle, there will already be schools whose medians have gone up two to three points. Which makes it inherently a more competitive cycle because the bar has just been raised. Now, Spidey Consulting, who I have great respect for, they have a fantastic Twitter that really dives into a lot of data, and they predicted that as many as 15% of those 170 plus test takers are actually going to reapply in this upcoming cycle, because there are students that maybe scored really high, but they maybe applied too late, or there was something else in their application that they wanted to strengthen.
There are a lot of students who are reapplying because they felt like in any other year, they would have had better options, and that's true. I can say from my own students, there are students who did fantastic. I have students who are going to almost every school in the T 14 or who have gotten into almost every school on the T 14.
I have students that are going to Harvard in the fall, to Columbia. But there are some students who I think would have gotten into different schools in a different year. So the effects of the competitive application cycle really can't be understated. There are even my own students I know who are going to reapply because they know that they can get into better schools than the schools that they got into because of the competitive nature of the cycle.
Now, of course, the reality is that if everyone has that thought process, and if everyone feels like, okay, if I just reapply next cycle, I'll have a better shot than I did this cycle. It'll then inevitably make next cycle also more competitive. So that's one of the things that is happening.
Another thing that is happening is that there are people who, all of those factors that I mentioned from the last cycle: the job and the economic loss and the stability, who had the desire during the crisis of the pandemic, I'm going to go to law school. And for some people they decided in April," I'm going to go to law school", and they got everything that they needed together for that fall.
And there's some people who said, "I'm going to go to law school next cycle." So we're still gonna see that wave of people from the pandemic, from the economic downturn who were planning to go to law school because of those reasons, but they were planning for this coming cycle. So now you have people who are reapplying from last cycle, high scorers, usually.
But people who are either taking the LSAT again or who are already a high score, who are taking the opportunity to reapply in the 2021 to 2022 cycle. We have people who made a more longterm plan from COVID that they were planning on always applying in the 2021 to 2022 cycle.
You have the fact that medians have gone up because the percentage of students who scored 170 and above went up significantly, like I said, that 65% increase in the 171 - 174 range. That 127% increase in the 175 plus range. And then you just have people who, even right now, they weren't thinking about it then but have since, with the continuation of the civil and racial injustice that we've had, with the rise of anti-Asian discrimination, with just where the world is, who are like, "no, I need to go to law school now."
And so there are people who have, even in the last couple of months, had the genesis of, the idea to go to law school. When you're talking about predicting an application cycle, it's not really an exact science.
I think one of the things that almost all of us in this profession, and it was like we knew to some degree that last cycle was going to be more competitive because of COVID and economic downturn, and we can see historically those trends and patterns, but I don't think any of us knew how competitive that cycle was gonna be until we were in it.
It wasn't until October and November and December that we were like "Oh, it's like that. Oh, okay." So the reason why I wanted to tell you, give you some thoughts to think about, is not to scare you or do any fear-mongering, but it's because I want you to be prepared.
I want all of my students to be even more prepared than we were prepared last cycle. There are a lot of things that you can do to. Try to prepare yourself for what might be an increased competitive cycle. One of those things is to make sure that you're applying early, that you're applying broadly and that you're applying with the strongest application possible.
So one: applying early. You guys hear me talk about this all the time. I want your applications and in September and October. September and October. There is nothing wrong with October. A lot of people have asked me, Oh, but if I take the October LSAT am I still gonna be early? Totally fine. I like to prepare so that's not the first time you're sitting for the LSAT, because then when you're retaking it, you're looking at November, January, now we're getting to places we don't want to go.
But absolutely. If you want to have October as a backup as a last resort kind of thing, that is totally fine for you because you'll get your scores you'll get your scores by the end of the month. You can still submit in October. I submitted my applications on Halloween and there was still, granted a completely different cycle,
certainly not as competitive, but it was still very much considered early in the cycle. So you will be fine if you submit your applications in September or October. That second point is applying broadly. Don't just apply to three or four schools. This is not that kind of cycle. I want all of you, I don't care if you think you're the bee's knees and you have all these accolades and you're the top this and the chief that, and you've got letters of recommendation coming from deans themselves,
If it is your ultimate goal, that you just want to go to law school. Of course you want to go to the best school that you get into, with the least amount of money. But if ultimately, at the end of the day, you want to go to law school in the fall,
you need to make sure that you are applying to a range of schools, that you have an LSAT that is way above their median schools, where you can leverage scholarship money. It's not just about applying to the top schools because they can be so wildly unpredictable, and also the scholarship money really varies at the top.
So you want to give yourself a lot of options. So I'm encouraging all my students to apply broadly. Now if you're the type of student that says "I'm only going to law school if I get into a T 14 school." Okay. Then you're only going to law school if you get into a T 14 school. Applying broadly is not really something that's in your cards and that's fine.
There's a lot of wise wisdom. For those that say, look, this is an investment, and I'm only going to make this investment for this tier of schools. But I would challenge you a little bit to say, what are your long-term goals as a lawyer, as a profession? Because you can get there from schools outside of the top 14 and there are actually a lot of regional schools that sometimes do even a better job of connecting you and networking you and giving you clinics and opportunities.
So you want to not just look at rankings and I have a blog out about the U.S. News and World Report rankings and whether we should care and why they matter or whether they don't matter at all.
But there are other things that you want to be looking at to evaluate the law school choices that you have and that's very important. Now, you're applying early, you're applying broadly, the last thing is that you want to make sure that you're submitting the strongest application possible. So for some of you, that means that I'm going to encourage you to retake the LSAT if you know that you can do better. I've had a series of conversations with students who feel pretty done with the LSAT. They might've gotten a great score yesterday or they might have already done the LSAT a few months ago. But if we're going to be honest, they know that they can score higher.
They just don't really want to study for the LSAT anymore. Which again, I understand no one really wants to continue studying for the L set. But if you know in your heart that you have a 170 in you or even a 160, you've been practice testing and practice testing, and you're getting that high score, but you've sat for the LSAT, it wasn't quite what you wanted to be, and you're kind of like, well, is it worth it? Is it worth retaking the LSAT? Yes. Yes it is. And it might cause you to have to do some things differently. I might say, you need to invest in this process more. If you think that you've hit a wall or a ceiling with self studying and books, you really might want to consider investing in a tutor or investing in a test prep course because the amount of money you spend on a tutor, let's say you spend a thousand dollars on a tutor, but you end up getting an LSAT score that gives you a full ride.
Well, I think that thousand dollars was worth it. Same thing goes with the application components. You want to make sure that your essays are incredibly strong. Like I mentioned, last time I was on a webinar with a Dean who said that even though LSAT scores were up this cycle, the quality of writing and essays was not up.
And he saw some really thrown together applications, essays that didn't accurately and effectively convey why they want to go to law school, why law school is the next logical step on their journey. And he just felt like it wasn't a very focused application. So those applications, despite having really high LSAT scores did not get accepted.
I know that you're LSAT's very important, and I'm not saying that it's not. But it is not 100% of your law school application. And if you approach your applications like that, like, "all I need to do is get a high LSAT score and then I just need to write something." You are going to miss the mark and you're going to be unhappy this cycle.
Additionally, you don't want to just do the bare minimum. So yes, of course you need a personal statement. But what other optional statements could you write? Can you write a diversity statement? Can you write a "Why Us?" Essay, do they accept that? Are there optional prompts that you can do? You want them to get a full picture of you and you want to give them as many opportunities to get to know you as possible.
So you want to make sure that you are not rushing the essay process, that you are investing in quality help for the essay process. Because again, you know you can invest in the essay process and it can save you hundreds of thousands of dollars. 56% of my students get at least a half tuition scholarship to law school.
It's important to me that you don't end up paying a lot of money for law school. Whether that help is coming from your school, if your school has a pre-law advisor or you seek the help of a consultant, you need to make sure that you have guidance and help on the essays and the written parts of your application.
You want to make sure that your resume is what law schools are looking for. Don't just assume, well I've been working and I have a resume. So I'm just going to submit that resume. That might not be what they're looking for. So you want to make sure that your resume is correct. You want to make sure that you're writing any addenda that could help provide context to any parts of your application.
You want to make sure that you're preparing your recommenders because your letters of recommendation are also important. So don't just ask anyone and don't just ask them any kind of way. Hey, yeah. Just write me a letter. I'm sure it'll be fine. They have no idea what to write. You want to tell them what law schools are looking for and you want to help them with the stories and the anecdotes and the strengths that you want to highlight.
There is a lot of things that go in your law school applications, and you want to make sure that they're as strong as possible. But you also, like I said, want to make sure that you're applying early. So you need to apply early. You need to apply broadly and you need to apply with strong application components.
Now, one of the questions that I frequently get asked is okay, but I heard that the August LSAT is a different format, and I don't want to take that. Let's talk about it a little bit. In August, we switched to a four section test because one of those sections will be experimental. That is how the law school admission council tests new questions. However, you will not really be able to tell at all, which section is experimental.
You will just know that you will get to have one kind of section and you have a one-third chance of getting a second logical reasoning, a second logic games, or a second reading. Now, how do you go about preparing for this? You should know that there are two sections back to back, a 10 minute break, and then the final two sections.
So each section is 35 minutes. If you know that you are someone who is going to be taking the August LSAT, I want you to be prepping like that. I want you to prep and practice like you're going to take the test because if you only prep the three section tests, you are going to be thrown off when you take that four section LSAT. And you want to be just kind of thinking about what that fourth section could be and could mean for your score.
I want you doing one of two things or a combination of both. One approach is alternating it and rotating what that fourth section is that you add in. The second approach is prepping your least favorite section, because truth be told that's going to be what's going to throw you off.
If you hate logic games, you hate them, and then you somehow find yourself back to back with two logic games sections. You might be thrown. You don't know where that experimental section is going to come. It could be the first section you take. It could be the second, third or fourth. So you won't know that one of your sections is experimental until you find yourself taking the second section. And you won't know if the second one is experimental or the first one you took was experimental. You just want to do good on both of them, but if there is a section that you are weak on, you want to be practicing that extra, just in case you get two sections of it.
Now only three sections are scored. So it is the same scoring, right? But you just want to make sure that your practice of the LSAT, because the LSAT is as much mental as it is the actual content of the test, and it's as much timing and stamina. And so that extra section might make you a little tired, but it won't if you practice. Now, listen. All of you can take a four section LSAT, okay. Because LSAT used to have five sections. I took a five section LSAT before June. It had five sections. So I don't want to hear anyone say well, I can't possibly do a four section LSAT. Yes, you can. You absolutely can do that. You just need to get in the habit and the practice of it, but I don't want you to say well, I'm not gonna retake my LSAT in August because I'll just do worse.
That is a defeatist mindset. If you feel like your application would be strengthened by an additional LSAT point or two or five, I don't want the fact that there's an August LSAT to deter you from that. I want you to say, okay, the August, LSAT's a slightly different format, but I know that I can crush it because if you can crush each individual section, if you can get really good at the logic games, really good at reading comp really good at logical reasoning,
it won't matter that there's a fourth section as long as you keep your stamina up. But your accuracy and your timing and the things that contribute to the high score are the same. So you should not avoid retaking the LSAT and avoid potentially getting higher points because you don't want to take a four section test.
There's too much at stake here for you to do that. So I do want to encourage you guys to push yourselves believe in yourselves. I believe in you. I really do. And I know no one wants to keep studying for the LSAT after they've mentally decided that they're done. But I really do you believe in your ability to do well on this test
and I believe that you have so much time. There's a lot of time. So I think that it is absolutely worth it for you guys to do everything you can to submit the strongest applications that you can in September and October, whether that's investing in a tutor or test prep.
I actually recommend a mindfulness for academic achievement course. Like I said, the LSAT is just as much mental as it is the actual content. Invest and get some help with the essays and with the written parts of your application. Take good care with your letters of recommendation.
Apply broadly, really think about what is going to be the best for your legal career, but also don't be tunnel vision and narrowed thinking that rankings are all that matter. If you do all those things, you will be able to have a successful application process, even if it is more competitive. And to answer that main question: "will all the 2021 to 2022 application cycle be more competitive?" It will be at least as competitive as last cycle but it might be a little bit more because of the percentage of test takers who scored high, who are reapplying, because the medians of schools went up, because the percentage of high test takers and high test scores went up. And because we're still seeing the effects of what happens when there's an economic downturn or there are other factors that cause people to want a more stable and traditional financial plan for their future.
I always say don't make long-term decisions based on short term emotions. So do what you need to do in this process. Invest in test prep, invest in tutors, invest in application and essay guidance, because all of that is really important. If you want to learn more about how you can work with me, you can go to my website smontgomeryconsulting.com. You'll find information about my bootcamps, about my private consulting, and also about my hourly consulting if you just need a few hours of help.
This was another episode of Break into Law School with Sydney Montgomery.
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